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为从城市规划阶段开始对自然灾害进行有针对性的防灾减灾,首先构建基于土地利用格局的自然灾害风险评价模型,建立基于灾害损失系数、应急体系能力和灾后重建难度系数的函数。然后,根据沿海地区灾害特点和受灾体格局,充分考虑社会和经济因素,分别建立灾害损失系数,应急体系能力和灾后重建难度系数的子函数。以江苏南通市为例,分别计算老城区,新城区和开发区的自然灾害风险。结果显示,应急体系不健全且经济落后的老城区建设用地受次生危险源格局影响较大;应急体系健全且经济发达的主城区中心区域灾害风险较小,但城市建成区边缘风险较大;发展迅速但应急体系不健全的新城区自然灾害风险也较大。根据各区的规划特点,提出针对南通市不同区域发展特点的减灾措施。
In order to carry out targeted disaster prevention and mitigation of natural disasters from the stage of urban planning, a natural disaster risk assessment model based on land use pattern is first constructed and a function based on disaster loss coefficient, emergency system capability and post-disaster reconstruction difficulty coefficient is established. Then, according to the disaster characteristics of the coastal area and the disaster-stricken pattern, taking full account of the social and economic factors, the sub-functions of disaster loss coefficient, emergency system capability and degree of difficulty of post-disaster reconstruction are respectively established. Taking Nantong, Jiangsu as an example, the risks of natural disasters in old urban areas, new urban areas and development zones are calculated respectively. The results show that the construction of old urban areas with inadequate emergency system and economic backwardness is greatly affected by the secondary hazard sources. The risk of disaster in the central urban area with sound emergency system and economically developed main urban area is relatively small, but the risk at the fringe of urban built-up areas is relatively large. The risk of natural disasters in the new metropolitan areas that are developing rapidly but have an inadequate emergency response system is also high. According to the planning features of each district, the paper puts forward the disaster reduction measures aimed at the development characteristics of different regions in Nantong.