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在分析房地产泡沫的理论基础、形成机制、研究方法的基础上,本文选取房地产价格增长率/人均GDP增长率、房价收入比、房地产开发投资/全社会固定资产投资、商品房销售竣工面积比、房地产投资中国内贷款比重、投资中国外游资比重等六个指标,采用层次分析法构建泡沫测度指标体系。以此测算北京市2010年房地产泡沫警戒值和综合测度值,结果表明北京市房地产市场整体上存在泡沫情况。
Based on the analysis of the theoretical basis, forming mechanism and research methods of real estate bubble, this paper chooses real estate price growth rate, per capita GDP growth rate, house price income ratio, real estate development investment, investment in fixed assets of the whole society, real estate sales completion area ratio, real estate Investment in China, the proportion of loans, the proportion of investment in China’s foreign capital investment and other six indicators, the use of analytic hierarchy process to build a bubble measure index system. This measure Beijing 2010 real estate bubble alert value and comprehensive measure value, the results show that the real estate market in Beijing as a whole there is a bubble situation.