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以前一般采用数学回归法或加权平均法等进行市场预测,但这些方法都是线性关系,市场变化基本上呈线性才适用。而近两年来特别是目前我国装载机市场已呈现出非线性关系变化,因此,只能根据实际市场情况用类比分析方法,并结合当前及未来可能的市场情况进行市场预测。2003年,我国装载机有望突破50000台,增幅约10%左右。有人担心2002年装载机市场特别火爆,2003年会不会大幅度下跌?从分析看不大会出现大的波动。东部发达地区,明年基础设施建设投资与今年基本持平,北京、上海等地还有所增加,特别是北京投资增加较大;中部及西部地区,特别是西北,原来基础设施
Before the general use of mathematical regression or weighted average method for market forecasting, but these methods are linear, the market changes basically linear only. In recent two years, especially in China, the loader market has shown a nonlinear change. Therefore, the market forecast can only be based on the actual market situation with the method of analogy analysis and the current and future market conditions. In 2003, China’s loader is expected to exceed 50000 units, an increase of about 10%. Some people are worried that in 2002 the loader market is particularly hot, will there be a substantial drop in 2003? From the analysis, there will be no major fluctuations in the conference. In developed eastern regions, the investment in infrastructural construction will remain basically unchanged from this year, with an increase in Beijing and Shanghai. In particular, the investment in Beijing will increase greatly. In the central and western regions, especially in the northwest, the original infrastructures