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目的探讨ARIMA模型在肺结核发病率预测中的应用,为制定肺结核防控策略提供科学数据。方法利用深圳沙井街道2006年1月-2011年6月的肺结核月发病率数据建立ARIMA模型,采用2011年7-12月的月发病率数据验证模型的预测效果。结果建立的ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12模型预测效果较好,实际值均在预测值的95%可信区间内,对2011年7-12月发病率的预测值基本符合实际发病率的变动趋势。结论 ARIMA模型能较好地模拟在短期内肺结核发病率的变动趋势。
Objective To investigate the application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and to provide scientific data for the development of tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. Methods ARIMA model was established based on monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Shajing Street in Shenzhen from January 2006 to June 2011 and the monthly prediction rate of July to December in 2011 was used to verify the predictive effect of the model. Results The ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1,1,0) 12 model established in this study has a good predictive effect and the actual values are all within the 95% confidence interval of the predictive value. The prediction of the incidence rate from July to December 2011 The value of the basic line with the trend of the actual incidence of change. Conclusion The ARIMA model can better simulate the trend of tuberculosis morbidity in short term.