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船舶溢油是最严重的海洋污染之一,对船舶溢油风险进行科学有效的预测和评估,揭示其发生的复杂规律,采取相应的预防及应急措施,使船舶溢油污染降到最低程度,已成为当今世界的一个热点。本文对船舶溢油的几种预测方法进行了实用性和局限性的讨论,从中得出灰色系统理论较适用于溢油数据记载不完备及新建港口的溢油预测,可作为制定有效的船舶溢油事故应急措施的科学依据。
Ship oil spill is one of the most serious marine pollution. It carries out scientific and effective forecast and assessment on the oil spill risk of the ship, reveals its complex law and takes corresponding preventive and emergency measures to minimize the oil spill pollution of the ship. Has become a hot spot in the world today. This paper discusses the practicality and limitations of several prediction methods for ship oil spills. From this, it is concluded that the gray system theory is more suitable for the prediction of oil spill with incompletely documented oil spill data and new ports, Scientific basis of emergency measures for oil accidents.