当前美国经济的恢复并没有走上如奥肯定律所预示的轨迹,而是陷入“高失业经济增长”的泥潭,这标志奥肯定律已经陷入了某种困局。而出现“奥肯困局”本质原因是在于美国经济“二元化”的趋势,导致其就业经济与GDP创造经济的相分离。本文构造了一个分部门的经济增长与就业关系模型,揭示由于劳动力吸收能力以及GDP创造能力在虚拟经济部门和低端服务部门之间的不对称性导致经济增长与就业关系的弱化,该不对称性随着经济虚拟化和去工业化而得到不断强化。利用1950-2009年美国的总体和分部门数据就GDP和就业创造的非同步性及二者的不对称及其后果进行了实证检验,认为忽视由经济“二元化”引起的奥肯定律已经弱化事实的经济恢复政策,只能使得美国走上“高失业型经济增长”的道路。 At present, the recovery of the U.S. economy has not come to a trail as promised by Okun’s law, but has plunged into the quagmire of “high unemployment growth.” This marks Okuenji’s law has plunged into a dilemma. The essential reason for the emergence of the “Okun Predicament” lies in the tendency of the “dualization” of the U.S. economy, resulting in the separation of its employment economy from that of GDP. This paper constructs a sub-sector model of economic growth and employment, revealing that the imbalance between economic growth and employment is weakened due to the imbalance between the absorption of labor force and GDP creation ability in the virtual economy sector and the low-end service sector With the economic virtualization and de-industrialization has been continuously strengthened. Empirical tests were conducted using aggregate and subsectoral data from the United States in 1950-2009 on the asymmetry in the creation of GDP and employment, as well as the asymmetry and consequences of both, arguing that the neglect of Okanyu by economic “dualization” The economic recovery policy that has weakened the law can only make the United States embark on the path of “high unemployment growth”.