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纺织服装业作为我国的劳动密集型制造业,如何发展一直受到广泛关注。本文应用logistic模型对我国纺织服装业的发展阶段进行研究,并以近13年的数据进行实证分析,探讨我国纺织服装业目前所处发展阶段及未来发展方向。结果表明,我国在2006年之后,纺织服装业处于高速增长期前期,而现在我国的纺织服装业正处于高速增长期后期。但随着外部环境的变化,我国纺织服装业将进入到成熟期阶段。
As a labor-intensive manufacturing industry in our country, the textile and garment industry has always attracted wide attention. In this paper, we use logistic model to research the development stage of our country’s textile and apparel industry and make empirical analysis based on the data of the past 13 years to discuss the current stage of development and future development of China’s textile and garment industry. The results show that after 2006, China’s textile and apparel industry is in the early period of rapid growth, and now China’s textile and garment industry is in the late period of rapid growth. However, with the changes in the external environment, China’s textile and clothing industry will enter a mature stage.