论文部分内容阅读
汇率稳定对经济增长的宏观影响这一问题并未引起主流经济学的足够关注。中等收入国家处在国际经济体系外围、经济开放程度高、汇率与物价双向作用明显,汇率不稳定对实际经济增长的负面影响更显著。本文梳理全球1980年以来中等收入阶段国家汇率制度选择和经济跨越表现的有关事实,建立分解框架解构汇率在经济跨越中的作用,基于面板向量自回归模型量化分析汇率和通胀的双向传递效应,构造汇率稳定指标对汇率波动和实际经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,揭示汇率不稳定对经济跨越的影响,对中等收入国家汇率稳定和管理提出政策建议。
The issue of the macroeconomic impact of exchange rate stability on economic growth has not caused enough attention from mainstream economics. Middle-income countries are located in the periphery of the international economic system with a high degree of economic openness, a clear two-way effect of exchange rate and prices, and the negative impact of instability on real economic growth. This paper reviews the relevant facts of the global exchange rate system choice and economic leapfrog performance of the middle-income countries since 1980, establishes the decomposition framework to deconstruct the role of exchange rate in economic leapfrogging, quantifies and analyzes the two-way transfer effect of exchange rate and inflation based on panel vector autoregressive model, The exchange rate stability index conducts an empirical test on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and real economic growth, reveals the impact of instability on the economic leap forward and makes policy recommendations on the exchange rate stability and management in middle-income countries.