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基于月尺度马尔科夫链模型,系统研究了塔河流域各洪旱状态之间的转移概率、期望停留时间和平均首达时间,在此基础上,预测了未来该流域洪旱灾害状态发生的概率风险。研究表明:(1)塔河流域丰水月和枯水月变化显著,其中,阿拉尔4-9月份枯水发生平均概率最高,大山口枯水发生概率最低;(2)塔河流域10月至次年3月连续枯水频率最高,而开都河流域连续丰水事件发生频率最高,表明该流域有较大的大旱或大涝风险;(3)丰水事件重现期低值主要集中在开都河和阿克苏河,而和田河和叶尔羌河丰水事件重现期较高;(4)塔河流域4-5月份干旱影响较大,加剧了塔河流域的水资源短缺问题。
Based on the monthly Markov chain model, the transfer probability, expected stay time and average first arrival time of each flood and drought state in the Tarim River Basin were systematically studied. Based on this, the status of flood and drought disasters in the basin was predicted Probability risk. The results show that: (1) monthly and dry month abundance of wet and dry months in Tahe Basin is significant. Among them, the average probability of dry season water in April and September in Alar is the highest, while the dry season in Dayantankou is the lowest. (2) The highest frequency of continuous low flow in March next year, and the highest frequency of continuous abundant water events in the Kaidu River basin indicates that there is a greater risk of severe drought or floods in this basin. (3) Concentrated in the Kaidu River and the Aksu River, and the Hotan River and the Yarkand River heavy water events have a high recurrence period; (4) The drought in the Tahe Basin from April to May has a greater impact, aggravating the water shortage in the Tarim River Basin.