中国经常项目顺差减少的原因何在?本文利用储蓄与投资之间的差距来进行深入分析,并对经常项目顺差减少能否中长期内持续下去,作出了对先决条件的判断。中国经常项目顺差趋势中国经常项目顺差与国内生产总值(GDP)比例在中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)时仅有1.3%,之后迅速增长,2007年为10.1%。不过该比例从2008年开始呈下降趋势,2011年大幅减少至1.9%,2012年以后保持在2%左右的水平,普遍认为这接近了平衡状态。众所周知,经常项目差额与储蓄和投资有一个固定的公式,即经常项目差额=储蓄-投资, What is the reason for the decrease in the current account surplus in China? This article uses the gap between savings and investment to conduct an in-depth analysis and makes judgments on the preconditions whether the current account surplus can be sustained in the medium or long term. China Current Account Surplus Trend China’s current account surplus to GDP ratio was only 1.3% at the time of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, and then rapidly increased from 10.1% in 2007. However, the ratio has been declining since 2008, dropping sharply to 1.9% in 2011 and to about 2% since 2012, which is generally considered to be near equilibrium. It is well known that there is a fixed formula for current account balances and savings and investments, ie current account balance = savings - investment,