论文部分内容阅读
基于2013年~2016年我国油菜籽期货价格与现货价格每日数据,运用ADF检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,分析了我国油菜籽临储政策取消前后油菜籽期货价格与现货价格关系的变化情况。研究发现:油菜籽临储政策取消前,我国油菜籽期货价格与现货价格之间不存在相互引导关系;临储政策取消后,我国油菜籽期货价格与现货价格之间存在长期的均衡关系,油菜籽期货价格单向引导油菜籽现货价格,我国油菜籽期货市场逐渐发挥其价格发现功能。最后,为促进我国油菜籽市场更好地发展提出了相关对策建议。
Based on daily data of China’s rapeseed futures price and spot price from 2013 to 2016, using ADF test, co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, Changes in the Relationship Between Rapeseed Futures Price and Spot Price. The study found that there was no mutual guidance between the price of rapeseed futures and the spot price in China before the policy of temporary storage of rapeseed was canceled. After the temporary reserve policy was canceled, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of rapeseed futures and the spot price in our country. The one-way guidance of futures price of rapeseed rapeseed spot price, China’s rapeseed futures market gradually play its price discovery. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the better development of China’s rapeseed market.