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本文在有约束的条件下,利用SVAR分析法就开放条件下财政支出对居民可支配收入和居民消费的影响进行了累积效应脉冲响应分析。结果表明:财政支出冲击对居民可支配收入和居民消费水平存在挤入效应;而出口冲击对居民可支配收入产生挤入效应,对居民最终消费水平存在挤出效应。在对居民消费进行累积脉冲响应分析的研究时发现,出口对居民可支配收入和居民最终消费支出的冲击为负向冲击,而财政支出和其本身对可支配收入的冲击为正向冲击,财政支出、可支配收入以及居民消费本身对居民消费的冲击为正向冲击。而且在正向冲击中,可支配收入的冲击效应最大,财政支出次之。总体来说,我国的财政支出对居民可支配收入和居民消费水平有积极的促进作用。
Under the condition of restraint, this paper uses SVAR analysis to analyze the impulse response of cumulative effect on the disposable income and resident consumption under the open condition. The results show that the impact of fiscal expenditure has a crowding-in effect on residents’ disposable income and household consumption level, while export shocks have squeezed the disposable income of residents and have a crowding-out effect on the final consumption level of residents. In the study of cumulative impulse response analysis of household consumption, we find that the impact of exports on residents ’disposable income and residents’ final consumption expenditure is a negative impact, while the fiscal expenditure and its own impact on disposable income is a positive impact. The fiscal Expenditure, disposable income, and household consumption themselves have a positive impact on household consumption. And in the positive impact, disposable income has the strongest impact and the second is the financial expenditure. In general, China’s fiscal expenditure has a positive effect on the disposable income and residents’ consumption level.