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利用华北平原49个气象站点的逐日气象数据和24个农业气象试验站的物候期数据,分析了1961—2010年冬小麦营养生长期、并进期、生殖生长期和全生育期的生长度日(Growing degree days,GDD)、高温度日(Killing degree days,KDD)、降水量及其气候倾向率的时空变化特征。研究表明,1)华北平原冬小麦全生育期GDD各省间差异不显著,但其他各生育期各省间空间分布差异显著(P<0.05),华北平原所有地区GDD的气候倾向率均呈正值,高值主要分布在山东东部(莱阳市和烟台市等)、河南东南部(信阳市和固始市等)一带;2)华北平原冬小麦各生育期KDD各省间差异不显著,营养生长期KDD均呈增加趋势,其他时期有增有减,生殖生长期与全生育期KDD倾向率呈现东北与西南正值,其他地区负值的特征;3)华北平原在过去的50年冬小麦各生育期降雨量均呈现由南向北递减特征,营养生长期及全生育期降雨量均呈增加趋势,并进期山东东部地区及生殖生长期河南南部地区呈现降低趋势。因此,过去50年,河北省西部(保定和石家庄等)一带小麦种植极端高温风险较大;山东东北及河南西南一带未来小麦种植极端高温风险较大。华北大部分地区干旱风险呈现降低趋势,山东东部(潍坊市和莱阳市等)在冬小麦并进期,河南南部(南阳市和固始市等)在冬小麦生殖生长期干旱风险呈增加趋势。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 49 meteorological stations in North China Plain and the phenological data of 24 agro-meteorological stations, the growing period of winter wheat in vegetative growth period, and in the period of growth, reproductive growth and whole growth period from 1961 to 2010 was analyzed degree days, GDD, KDD, precipitation and their climate tendency. The results showed that: 1) There was no significant difference in all GDD provinces during the whole growth period of winter wheat in the North China Plain, but there was significant difference in spatial distribution among all the other growth stages (P <0.05). The GCD of all GDDs in North China Plain showed a positive trend, The values were mainly distributed in the eastern part of Shandong Province (Laiyang City and Yantai City, etc.), southeastern Henan Province (Xinyang City and Gushi City, etc.); 2) There was no significant difference in KDD among different growth stages of winter wheat in North China Plain, KDD in vegetative growth stage Increase trend in other periods, increase and decrease in other periods, KDD tendency in reproductive growth period and whole growth period showed the positive value of northeast and southwest, and the negative value in other areas; 3) The rainfall of the North China Plain in each growth period of winter wheat in the past 50 years Showing a decreasing trend from south to north. Rainfall in vegetative growth period and whole growth period both showed an increasing trend, and decreased in the eastern part of Shandong and in southern Henan during the reproductive growth period. Therefore, in the past 50 years, there is a high risk of extreme high temperature in the wheat growing areas in the west of Hebei Province (Baoding and Shijiazhuang, etc.); the risk of extreme high temperature for planting wheat in the northeast of Shandong and southwestern Henan is higher. Drought risk in most parts of North China showed a decreasing trend. In eastern Shandong (Weifang and Laiyang, etc.), the drought risk increased in winter wheat in late stage and in southern Henan (Nanyang and Gushi etc.) during the reproductive phase of winter wheat.