应用通径分析原理,对1996～2010年广东省化州市第3代稻纵卷叶螟发生的历史资料进行分析。明确了在相关环境气象因素中,1～2月的降雨量和温雨系数是影响该害虫发生程度的主导因子,而其他环境气象因子对该虫的影响主要是通过这2个因子间接起到作用的,并组建了回归预测模型。通过历史资料进行回检,符合率为90.7%。 Based on the principle of path analysis, the historical data of the third generation of rice leaf roller in Huazhou City of Guangdong Province from 1996 to 2010 were analyzed. It is clear that among the related environmental meteorological factors, rainfall and warm rain coefficient from January to February are the dominant factors that affect the pest occurrence, and the impact of other environmental meteorological factors on the pest is mainly indirectly through the two factors Role, and set up a regression prediction model. According to the historical data, the coincidence rate was 90.7%.