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采用科学方法对内蒙古玉米产量差与生产潜力进行定量化研究,对合理规划内蒙古玉米增产途径及产业发展具有重要意义。本研究采用品种×密度联网试验和Hybrid-Maize模型模拟相结合的方法,利用2006年以来内蒙古各生态区历年高产攻关田的最高实测产量和各区域农户平均产量,对内蒙古全区和6大生态类型区的玉米产量差和生产潜力进行了系统分析。结果表明,各生态区的模拟产量、高产纪录、试验产量、农户产量皆表现为从东到西逐步提高。内蒙古玉米模拟产量潜力为14.9 t×hm~(-2),高产纪录产量为14.4 t×hm~(-2),试验产量为11.1 t×hm~(-2),农户产量分别实现了模拟产量潜力的49%、高产纪录产量的51%和试验产量的66%。基于模型模拟的产量差(YGM)、基于高产纪录的产量差(YGR)和基于试验产量的产量差(YGE)分别为7.5 t×hm~(-2)、7.0 t×hm~(-2)和3.8 t×hm~(-2)。基于YGE的短期生产潜力达3 525.2万t,是当前总产水平的1.6倍,短期增产潜力为1 191.9万t。其中,内蒙古东部的呼伦贝尔、兴安盟、通辽、赤峰4盟市对全区的增产贡献率将达61%,西部的呼和浩特市、巴彦淖尔市为16%。造成较大YGE主要原因是栽培管理措施不当,缩小YGE需要针对限制各生态区玉米增产的实际问题,通过栽培技术综合改良、技术简化和技术入户来逐步实现。
It is of great significance to quantitatively study the yield difference and production potential of maize in Inner Mongolia using scientific methods. In this study, a combination of variety × density network test and Hybrid-Maize model simulation method was used to make use of the highest measured output of high-yielding field in various ecological zones of Inner Mongolia in 2006 and the average output of farmers in each region. Type of maize yield difference and potential productivity were systematically analyzed. The results showed that the simulated yields, high yield records, experimental yields and farmer yields in all ecological zones all showed a gradual increase from east to west. The simulation yield potential of maize in Inner Mongolia was 14.9 t × hm -2, the record high yield was 14.4 t × hm -2, and the test yield was 11.1 t × hm -2. The yield of farmer households achieved simulated yield 49% of potential, 51% of record high yield and 66% of trial yield. Yield-deficit (YGM), yield-based yield (YGR) and yield-based yield (YGE) based on model simulations were 7.5 t × hm -2, 7.0 t × hm -2, And 3.8 t × hm ~ (-2). Short-term production potential based on YGE is 32 525 thousand t, which is 1.6 times of the current total production level, and short-term potential for increase is 11.919 million t. Among them, Hulun Buir, Xing’an League, Tongliao and Chifeng 4 cities in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia will contribute 61% of the region’s total output, and 16% in Huhhot and Bayannao’er in the west. The main reason for the large YGE is the improper cultivation and management measures. To reduce the YGE need to solve the practical problems that limit the yield increase of maize in each ecological zone, and gradually realize it through comprehensive improvement of cultivation techniques, technology simplification and technology entry.