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村镇体系规模结构变化是一种Markov Chain。针对村镇体系规模结构的实际变化特征并结合Markov Chain理论,运用Markov转移矩阵方法,以莎车县为实例,通过分析历史变化过程并建立一个预测在n年后发展变化的预测模型;文章指出,不同类型村镇比重之间的差异增大并呈极性发展,整个村镇体系发展势态良好。模型有效解决了村镇体系规模结构的“无后效性”特点,为相关地域制订合理的村镇发展政策与规划提供理论依据。
Changes in the size of the village system structure is a Markov Chain. According to the actual characteristics of the scale structure of village and town system and Markov Chain theory, this paper uses Markov transfer matrix method and takes Shache County as an example to analyze the historical change process and establish a forecasting model which predicts the development and change after n years. The differences between the proportions of different types of villages and towns have increased and have developed in a polar manner. The entire rural system has enjoyed a good momentum of development. The model effectively solves the “post-invalidity” feature of the scale structure of the village and town system and provides a theoretical basis for formulating a reasonable rural development policy and planning in the relevant area.