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文章利用实物期权理论,量化了R&D项目投资决策中的技术风险、经济风险和突发风险等不确定性,并结合了跳跃-扩散与信息披露过程的影响,通过分析竞争市场中企业自身与竞争者的投资决策,构建了一类竞争市场情景中R&D项目4种投资决策模型来计算投资决策收益。结果表明:通过对投资时机和决策收益的精确评估得到的R&D项目最佳投资决策,对R&D项目的投资决策分析具有重要的参考价值,并保证了企业的竞争优势和收益最大化。
Based on the real option theory, the article quantifies the uncertainties such as technical risk, economic risk and sudden risk in R & D project investment decision. By combining the influence of jump-diffusion and information disclosure process, We construct four kinds of investment decision models of R & D projects in a competitive market scenario to calculate the investment decision returns. The results show that the optimal investment decision of R & D project obtained through accurate evaluation of investment timing and decision-making benefits has important reference value for R & D project investment decision analysis and ensures the competitive advantage and profit maximization of the enterprise.