GDP增长目标是计划经济的产物,中国尽管改革了37年,仍保留着计划经济时代形成的基本思想,这个必须改变不确定性分两类,一类是自然的不确定性,另一类是人为的不确定性。人为的不确定性其实就是人类自己的认知错误,从短期来看,经济的主要不确定性是人为的不确定性,即政策错误,特别是货币政策。2008年经济危机就是政府政策造成的,而政府应对危机的政策又造成新的不确定因素。政府和企业家都会犯错,企业家犯了错会破产,政府犯了错会用新的错误掩盖旧的错误,而无需负责。其次,企业家 The goal of GDP growth is the product of a planned economy. Although China has reformed for 37 years, it still retains the basic idea formed in the planned economy era. This must change the uncertainty into two categories, one is natural uncertainty and the other is Human uncertainty. The artificial uncertainty is actually the human’s own cognitive mistake. In the short run, the major economic uncertainty is the artificial uncertainty, namely the policy error, especially the monetary policy. The economic crisis of 2008 was caused by government policies, and the government’s policy of coping with crises created new uncertainties. Governments and entrepreneurs make mistakes, entrepreneurs make mistakes and go bankrupt. If the government makes a mistake, it will cover up the old mistakes with new mistakes without being responsible. Second, entrepreneurs