本文以军事冲突决策为研究背景 ,给出了在不完全信息下 ,局中人处在冲突态势改变过程是一个模糊集上的马尔柯夫过程时状态转移的预测模型 ,并且探讨了当状态转移的无后效应是模糊概念时模糊马尔柯夫链状态转移的预测模型 In this paper, taking the military conflict decision as the research background, this paper gives the prediction model of state transition under the incomplete information, when the bureaucrat is in the process of Markov process whose process of changing the conflict situation is a fuzzy set, The non-post effect is the prediction model for the state transition of fuzzy Markov chain when the fuzzy concept is adopted