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笔者利用2002年~2011年全国省域土地出让收入数据,使用聚类分析法、主成分分析法以及GMM分析方法,研究土地财政对不同区域集群地方财政收支差距的影响,并进行政策评价。研究发现,从整体上我国不同区域的土地财政发展状况大致可分为四个阶段,即后土地财政阶段、土地财政旺盛阶段、土地财政较为旺盛阶段以及土地财政发展阶段。对处于土地财政不同发展阶段的区域而言,土地财政对地方财政收支差距有不同的影响。因此,笔者提出优化土地税收结构、深化分税制改革、改革政绩考核体制等政策建议。
The author uses the data of provincial-level land transfer income from 2002 to 2011 in China, uses cluster analysis, principal component analysis and GMM analysis methods to study the impact of land finance on local fiscal revenue and expenditure disparity in different regional clusters and conducts policy evaluation. The study finds that on the whole, the state of land finance in different regions of our country can be roughly divided into four stages, that is, the post-land finance stage, the land finance exuberant stage, the land finance more prosperous stage and the land finance development stage. For areas in different stages of land finance, land finance has different impacts on the local fiscal revenue and expenditure gap. Therefore, the author puts forward some policy recommendations such as optimizing the tax structure of land, deepening the reform of tax-sharing system and reforming the performance appraisal system.