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研究了全国卫生陶瓷进出口趋势的预测模型。将灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫模型结合,构建了灰色马尔可夫预测模型。按特定的状态划分方法,先用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,再用马尔可夫模型对预测结果进行优化,使预测精度大大提高。利用该方法对全国卫生陶瓷进出口趋势进行了预测,给出了未来几年的全国卫生陶瓷进出口量和进出口金额的预测结果。
The prediction model of the national sanitary ceramics import and export trend was studied. Combining gray GM (1,1) model with Markov model, a gray Markov forecasting model is constructed. According to the method of special state division, the gray GM (1,1) model is first used to predict, and then the Markov model is used to optimize the prediction results so that the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. The method is used to predict the import and export of sanitary ceramics in China. The forecast of the volume of import and export of sanitary ceramics and the amount of import and export in the next few years are given.