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本文提出的应用余弦模型对流脑月、年发病数进行的预测是定量预测方法，结果较为准确，有一定应用价值。为使预测值＞ ０ ，在ｒ≤０－５ 时，可直接计算，ｒ＞ ０－５ 时，需把原始数据转换成对数后再进行计算。同时，对在应用中应注意的其它一些问题进行了讨论。
This paper presents the application of cosine model convection cerebrum, the annual incidence forecasting is a quantitative prediction method, the result is more accurate and has some applications. For the prediction value> 0, when r≤0-5, it can be directly calculated, when r> 0-5, the original data need to be converted into a logarithm and then calculated. At the same time, other issues that should be noted in the application are discussed.