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城市化是经济发展的必经过程,但城市化一定能够促进经济增长吗?本文选取战后城市化水平快速发展的19个国家建立面板数据模型,通过协整检验、Granger因果检验和面板向量自回归模型探讨城市化与经济增长的相关关系。研究发现:二者存在长期稳定关系,经济增长是城市化水平提高的原因,但城市化并不是经济增长的原因;二者呈现弱正相关,相互解释程度极低。本文认为单纯将城市化作为政策工具用以推动经济增长,很难实现。一者,借鉴拉美地区发展中国家经验,与经济发展水平不匹配的城市化使经济发展陷入困境的风险极大;二者,发达国家往往收入差距小,经济发展主要依靠技术进步和资本积累,城市化更多是经济发展的一种必然结果。最后,给出我国在发展新型城镇化过程中的相关政策建议。
Urbanization is the necessary process of economic development, but urbanization will certainly be able to promote economic growth? This paper selects the 19 countries with rapid urbanization after the war to set up the panel data model. Through the cointegration test, Granger causality test and panel vector self Regression model to explore the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between the two, and economic growth is the reason for the increase of urbanization level. However, urbanization is not the reason of economic growth. Both show weak positive correlation and very low mutual explanation. This paper argues that simply using urbanization as a policy tool to promote economic growth is difficult to achieve. One, drawing on the experience of developing countries in Latin America, the urbanization that does not match the level of economic development poses a great risk of making economic development in trouble. Both, the developed countries tend to have small income disparities and rely mainly on technological progress and capital accumulation for economic development. More urbanization is a necessary result of economic development. Finally, we give some suggestions on how to develop our country’s urbanization.