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利用矩阵分解技术,证明了农业经济产出过程农业内部乘数效应、外部乘数效应和城市涓滴效应共同决定。在对北京1985—2007年的投入产出分析的基础上,对城乡经济关系得出新的理解:在城镇化和市场化初期,农业经济的大部分收益来自于城镇的涓滴作用;随着城镇飞速发展,城乡二元结构对比强烈,农业的绝大部分收益来自农业内部;最后,在食品安全、生态保育和一系列社会问题以及经营者在农村寻求经济机会的推动下,农业和城市经济开始结合,城市反哺农业。研究表明,在各个时期,农业经济的发展在很大程度上依赖于城市经济,在市场化初期这种程度在60%—70%左右,而在今后的城乡一体化发展阶段,农业的绝大部分收益会来自于城市经济的涓滴作用,农业的食品、生态和社会功能应摆在优先重要位置。
Using the matrix decomposition technique, it is proved that the agricultural internal multiplier effect, external multiplier effect and urban trickle-down effect of agricultural economic output process are jointly determined. Based on the analysis of Beijing’s input-output from 1985 to 2007, a new understanding of the economic relationship between urban and rural areas was obtained: in the initial stage of urbanization and marketization, most of the agricultural economy’s revenue came from the trickle-down effect of cities and towns; With rapid development, the dual structure of urban and rural areas is strong, and the vast majority of agricultural income comes from within agriculture. Finally, thanks to food safety, ecological conservation and a host of social issues and the operators’ economic opportunities in rural areas, agriculture and urban economy begin Combined, the city nurtured agriculture. The research shows that in each period, the development of agricultural economy relies heavily on the urban economy, which is about 60% -70% in the early stage of marketization. In the future stage of urban-rural integration, the agricultural development is immense Part of the benefit will come from the trickle down of the urban economy, where the food, ecology and social functions of agriculture should be given top priority.