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自然灾害的影响是由致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三者共同作用的结果。致灾因子、孕灾环境目前各部门、各区域已经作了较为详细、深入的研究 ,但承灾体脆弱性研究还只刚刚起步。针对县 (市 )区域的人口、固定财富、正创造财富及特重大财富等社会经济因素建立灾害区域承灾体的脆弱性综合评价指标体系和评价模型 ,完成县 (市 )级承灾区域脆弱性程度的综合评价和区划。主要研究内容包括 :(1)通过对当前灾害理论分析和我国近年来灾害特点、特别是自然灾害损失特点的研究 ,提出自然灾害所造成的影响是由致灾环境的绝对性和承灾体脆弱程度的相对性两个因素共同作用的观点。(2 )确立承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系原则和结构 ,并通过反推法、信息量法等方法建立了承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系。(3)采用层次分析法选请有关灾害专家填写评价指标两两判断矩阵 ,确定了不同灾害类型灾害的脆弱性评价指标权重分布 ,建立权重库 ,并在前人研究基础上 ,建立了承灾体脆弱性的指标分级标准。(4 )建立了承灾体脆弱性模糊综合评判模型、物元分析评判模型和灰色聚类评判模型 ,并分别应用三种模型评价了江西省地质灾害的区域脆弱程度、浙江省地震灾害的区域脆弱程度和广西壮族自治区洪涝灾害的区域脆弱程度。(5 )应用 Visual Basic语言
The impact of natural disasters is the result of the joint action of disaster-causing factors, the environment of disaster-bearing and disaster-bearing bodies. Disaster Victims and Pre-disaster Environment At present, all departments and regions have made detailed and in-depth studies, but the research on the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies has just started. Aiming at the social and economic factors such as population, fixed wealth, creating wealth and extraordinarily important wealth in the county (city) area, the comprehensive evaluation index system and evaluation model of vulnerability of disaster-bearing body in disaster area are established to complete the fragility of the disaster-bearing area at the county (city) level Comprehensive evaluation and zoning of sexuality. The main contents are as follows: (1) Through the analysis of the current disaster theory and the characteristics of the disasters in our country in recent years, especially the natural disasters, it is proposed that the natural disasters should be caused by the absoluteness of the disastrous environment and the vulnerability of the disaster- Degree of relativity two factors work together point of view. (2) Establishing the principle and structure of vulnerability assessment index system of disaster-bearing body, and establishing the index system of vulnerability assessment of disaster-bearing body through the method of backstepping and information quantity. (3) Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is adopted to select relevant disaster experts to fill in the two-in-one judgment matrix of evaluation indexes, determine the weight distribution of vulnerability evaluation indexes for different disaster types and establish the weight library. Based on previous studies, Vulnerability indicators grading standards. (4) The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, matter-element analysis and evaluation model and gray clustering evaluation model of vulnerability of disaster-bearing body are established. Three models are used to evaluate the regional vulnerability of geological disasters in Jiangxi Province. The area of earthquake disaster in Zhejiang Province is fragile Extent and regional vulnerability of flood disaster in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. (5) Application Visual Basic language