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今年上半年国际油价波动呈现一季度上涨、二季度回落的走势行情,主要的运行区间在70～90美元/桶。尽管5月初的欧元区债务危机扰乱了复苏的进程,但我们认为全球经济二次探底的风险不大,这是复苏进程中难免的反复。而随着后市欧元区危机逐步缓和,市场情绪有望得到抚平,在低利率的宽松货币环境下,原油市场金融性属性有望继续增强,
In the first half of this year, the fluctuation of international oil prices showed a rise in the first quarter and a downward trend in the second quarter. The main operating range was between 70 to 90 U.S. dollars per barrel. Although the Eurozone debt crisis in early May disrupts the recovery process, we believe the risk of a double dip in the global economy is modest, which is an inevitable repetition of the recovery process. With the gradual easing of the crisis in the euro area after the market outlook, the market sentiment is expected to be soothed. Under the loose monetary environment of low interest rates, the financial nature of the crude oil market is expected to continue to increase.