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利用1996—2009年我国31个省区的地区经济增长和交通事故指标建立面板模型,结合统计图表,综合分析了区域经济增长对交通安全的影响。散点图和面板回归分析的结果证明:区域经济增长与交通安全之间存在一定关系,区域交通安全风险基本伴随着人均地区生产总值的增加呈现上升趋势;产业结构、人力资本、技术进步和经济一体化等经济增长因素对交通安全有一定影响,但是不同因素的影响程度存在较大差异,产业结构的影响最为突出,人力资本也是重要的影响因素。在交通事故万人发生率方面,上海最高,山西最低。在交通事故万人伤亡率方面,浙江最高,黑龙江最低。不同省区经济增长要素的非均衡性分布是影响交通安全空间分布的重要因素。随着国内产业转移和调整,发达省区的制造业正在加速向中西部省区转移,可能会增加中西部省区的交通事故风险,需要加强对这些区域交通安全的监控。
Using the regional economic growth and traffic accident indicators of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1996 to 2009, a panel model was established and the impact of regional economic growth on traffic safety was analyzed synthetically with statistical charts. The results of scatter plot and panel regression analysis show that there is a certain relationship between regional economic growth and traffic safety. The regional traffic safety risk basically shows an upward trend with the increase of GDP per capita. Industrial structure, human capital, technological progress and Economic growth and other economic growth factors have some impact on traffic safety, but the impact of different factors is quite different, the impact of industrial structure is the most prominent, and human capital is also an important factor. In the incidence of traffic accidents million people, the highest in Shanghai, Shanxi lowest. In the traffic accident million casualties, the highest in Zhejiang, Heilongjiang lowest. The unbalanced distribution of economic growth elements in different provinces and autonomous regions is an important factor that affects the spatial distribution of traffic safety. With the transfer and adjustment of domestic industries, the manufacturing industries in the developed provinces are accelerating the transfer to the central and western provinces and autonomous regions, which may increase the traffic accident risk in the central and western provinces and the need to strengthen the monitoring of traffic safety in these regions.