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[目的]探讨乙肝肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎(SBP)预后因素并建立预后模型。[方法]采用回顾性病例对照研究,收集2000年1月1日~2013年12月31日我院住院的乙肝肝硬化并SBP患者87例为研究对象,据治疗2周时疗效分为好转组和无效死亡组,2组患者比较一般情况、Child-pugh分级、血清化验指标及并发症,采用单因素分析(χ2/t/Z检验)和多因素分析(Logistic回归)对患者进行比较,得出影响SBP预后因素,采用偏最大似然估计前进法建立预后模型,用之预判治疗2周时患者无效死亡的概率及评估死亡风险。[结果]影响SBP的独立危险因素是Child-pugh分级C级、并休克血症、低钠血症。血清钠离子是影响SBP预后的保护因素。应用模型预判治疗2周时患者无效死亡的概率。[结论]应用影响SBP的独立危险因素和预后模型,为临床进行SBP病情评估、合理治疗提供参考。
[Objective] To explore the prognostic factors of hepatitis B cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and to establish a prognostic model. [Methods] A retrospective case-control study was conducted to collect 87 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis and SBP who were admitted to our hospital from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2013. According to the treatment 2 weeks, the curative effect was divided into improvement group And invalid death group. The general situation, Child-pugh classification, serum test index and complication were compared between two groups. The patients were compared by univariate analysis (χ2 / t / Z test) and multivariate analysis (Logistic regression) A prognostic factor influencing SBP was determined by partial least-likelihood estimation. The prognosis model was established by predicting the probability of invalid death at 2 weeks and the risk of death was evaluated. [Results] The independent risk factors affecting SBP were Child-pugh grade C, and sequelae and hyponatremia. Serum sodium is a protective factor that affects the prognosis of SBP. Probability of invalid death in patients treated 2 weeks after application of the model. [Conclusion] The independent risk factors and prognosis models that affect SBP are used to provide a reference for the clinical evaluation of SBP and reasonable treatment.