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依据各省级区域的风电生产成本数据,运用Logistic模型等对我国风电与煤电成本的变化趋势进行预测和对比,从动态分析视角对风电替代煤电的可行性展开研究。研究结果表明,到2020年会实现风电替代煤电的动态均衡状态,风电完全在经济性上具备了替代煤电的可行性,达到动态均衡状态时电力产品的成本和替代的进程呈反向关系。目前,全国大部分省域的风电标杆价格无法保证风电实现经济合理开发,本文从提高特定区域的风电标杆上网价格和降低风电项目建设投资两方面提出对策建议。
Based on the data of wind power production cost in each provincial area, we use Logistic model to predict and compare the trend of wind power and coal-electricity costs in our country. The feasibility of replacing coal with wind power is studied from the perspective of dynamic analysis. The results show that by 2020, the dynamic equilibrium state of wind power instead of coal and electricity will be realized. Wind power has the feasibility of replacing coal and electricity completely economically. When the state of dynamic equilibrium is reached, the cost of power product is inversely related to the progress of substitution . At present, the benchmark price of wind power in most of the provinces does not guarantee the economical and rational development of wind power. This article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from two aspects: raising the price of wind power benchmarking in a specific region and reducing the investment in wind power project construction.