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本文对Delphi法中专家评价可靠性问题进行了研究,并以专家群体意见作为标准,对评价专家个体进行分类与分析,以此作为选择和调整评价专家的依据,以提高专家意见的协调程度。当然,本文仅限于寻找出少数持不同意见的专家,这些专家是否参与下轮调查还应作进一步的具体分析。
This paper studies the reliability evaluation of experts in the Delphi method, and uses the opinions of the expert group as a criterion to classify and analyze the individual evaluation experts as a basis for selecting and adjusting evaluation experts so as to improve the coordination of expert opinions. Of course, this article is limited to finding out a few experts who hold disagreements. Whether these experts participate in the next round of investigations should be further analyzed.