针对 ITS的开发 ,建立了分析交通流突变的变点统计方法。依据交通流理论 ,结合均值变点模型 ,对突变存在与否的检验、变点个数的判定以及变点搜索的最小二乘法等问题进行了详细论述。最后利用英国南安普敦市的实际数据对上述算法进行了标定 ,并给出模型应用的实例 ,验证了方法的有效性 Aiming at the development of ITS, a statistical method of change point for analyzing sudden change of traffic flow was established. Based on the theory of traffic flow and the mean value change point model, the existence of mutation is tested, the number of change points and the least-squares method of change-point search are discussed in detail. Finally, the above algorithm is calibrated using the actual data of Southampton, UK, and examples of the application of the model are given to verify the effectiveness of the method