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基于城乡二元经济结构的特征,构建变参数状态空间模型对乡城人口迁移与居民总消费支出的动态关系进行了估计。结果表明,城镇居民消费增长对居民总消费增长的拉动作用最大;乡城人口迁移引致的消费支出对居民总消费增长的拉动作用次之,且呈现跳跃上升趋势;农村居民消费增长的拉动作用正处于稳中有升阶段;人口增长引致的消费支出的拉动作用的影响力仍在不断下降。因此,当前我国居民消费增长主要依赖的是城镇居民消费支出的增长和农村人口向城镇的迁移引起的消费增加。
Based on the characteristics of the urban-rural dual economic structure, a dynamic state-space model with variable parameters was constructed to estimate the dynamic relationship between the rural population migration and the total household consumption expenditure. The results show that the growth of urban residents’ consumption has the greatest effect on the growth of total household consumption. The consumption of rural residents caused by population migration has the second-easing effect on the growth of total household consumption, showing a leaping upward trend. The driving effect of rural resident consumption growth At a steady and rising stage; the impact of the stimulus of consumer spending caused by population growth is still declining. Therefore, at present, the growth of household consumption in our country mainly relies on the increase of consumption expenditure of urban residents and the increase of consumption caused by the migration of rural population to cities and towns.