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本文针对海洋工程项目管理中的风险分析研究现状及发展趋势,进行了风险分析的模型建立、预测等研究。通过引进模糊计算的理论,更加精确的计算项目的风险数值,建立了项目风险事件的发生概率和影响程度的评价体系及标准。通过模糊函数的比较,将专家意见进行量化,总结、归纳出一套行之有效的风险概率值的计算方法。将整体项目进行划分,分为组织机构及人员管理水平、建造与安装管理水平、采购及设计全过程风险识别,在以上内容基础上建立起新的海洋工程项目管理的风险分析模式。
In this paper, according to the current situation and development trend of risk analysis in marine engineering project management, the research on model establishment and forecast of risk analysis is carried out. By introducing the theory of fuzzy calculation and calculating the risk value of the project more accurately, the evaluation system and standard of the probability and degree of impact of the risk event are established. Through the comparison of fuzzy functions, the opinions of experts are quantified, summed up, and a set of effective calculation methods of risk probability values are summarized. The overall project is divided into organization and personnel management, construction and installation management, procurement and design of the whole process of risk identification, based on the above to establish a new marine project management risk analysis model.