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依据天山北坡军塘湖河近30年的径流数据及降水数据,运用Kendall秩相关系数、R/S分析、降水-径流深累积双曲线等多种方法,探讨了军塘湖河流径流的年内、年际、季节变化特征及其影响因子.结果表明:军塘湖河径流年内分配不均衡,主要集中于春季;径流的年代际变化呈现明显的上升趋势,递增率为0.0015 m3·s~(-1)·a-1,Hurst指数为0.6326;年内不同季节表现出不同的变化趋势,其中春、秋两季表现出递减趋势,而夏、冬两季表现出递增的趋势.近年来,受到人为因素和自然要素的影响,径流在径流-降水累积曲线中表现出一定的偏移,人为因素对径流的影响贡献率最大达25.68%,而降水对径流的贡献率为74.32%.由此,降水是影响军塘湖河径流变化的主要因素,而人为影响为次要因素.
Based on the runoff data and precipitation data of the Junteng Lake in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain in the past 30 years, Kendall rank correlation coefficient, R / S analysis, deep cumulative rainfall-runoff hyperbola, , Interannual and seasonal variations and their influencing factors were analyzed.The results showed that the distribution of Junteng Lake runoff was uneven during the year and mainly concentrated in spring. The interdecadal variation of runoff showed a clear upward trend, with an increasing rate of 0.0015 m3 · s ~ (-1) -1) · a-1, the Hurst exponent was 0.6326, showing different trends in different seasons during the year, of which the spring and autumn showed a decreasing trend, while the summer and winter showed an increasing trend. In recent years, Anthropogenic factors and natural factors, the runoff shows a certain offset in the runoff-precipitation cumulative curve, the contribution of anthropogenic factors to runoff is up to 25.68%, while the contribution of precipitation to runoff is 74.32% Precipitation is the main factor affecting the runoff change of Juntang Lake, and human factors are the secondary factors.