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为了揭示中国城市化过程中的能源消费特点,通过建立STR模型将城市化对能源消费的非线性影响进行描述,实证结果表明:(1)城市化不同时期水平的发展对能源的影响不同。处在城市化发展中期的中国,城市化发展速度对能源消费的影响不仅具有当期效应,还具有累积的效应。(2)随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市化水平的增长速度要想进一步提高,付出的能源代价也是不断增加。(3)城市化导致中国生产能源和生活能源消费的同时增加。中国城市化对能源消费的加速作用主要源于中国产业的重化工,而技术进步则部分抵消掉了这种加速作用。建议为保持合理适度的城市化增长率,调整能源消费结构,提高能源利用效率。
In order to reveal the characteristics of energy consumption in the process of urbanization in China, the non-linear effect of urbanization on energy consumption is described through the establishment of STR model. The empirical results show that: (1) The development of urbanization at different levels has different impacts on energy consumption. In the mid-term urbanization of China, the impact of the speed of urbanization on energy consumption has not only current effects but also cumulative effects. (2) With the continuous improvement of urbanization level, the speed of urbanization should be further increased and the cost of energy increased. (3) Urbanization has led to an increase in both production and consumption of energy in China. The accelerating effect of urbanization on energy consumption in China mainly stems from the heavy chemical industry in China, while technological progress partially offset this acceleration. It is suggested that in order to maintain a reasonable and moderate urbanization growth rate, we should adjust the structure of energy consumption and improve energy efficiency.