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以中国西北绿洲工业城市嘉峪关为研究对象,基于遥感影像数据,应用地理优化模拟系统(Geo SOS)的MCE-CA模型,整合“正规划”和“反规划”理念,研究了嘉峪关城市2020年和2030年的城市开发边界划定,以期为嘉峪关市土地利用和城市管理提供依据。结果表明:(1)在研究的19 a间,嘉峪关市扩张迅速,2014年的城市用地面积是1995年的2.1倍,城市外围轮廓形态的紧凑度呈减小的趋势,由1995年的0.25减小到2014年的0.14,城市蔓延性增长特征明显。斑块密度逐渐增大,由1995年的0.02增加到2014年的0.12,城市发展趋于松散,城市用地破碎度增加,城市用地连通度下降。(2)嘉峪关市2020年和2030年的弹性城市开发边界规模分别为106.78 km2和149.35 km2,刚性城市开发边界为246.92 km2。(3)划定的城市开发边界提升了嘉峪关市紧凑度和连通度,城市用地紧凑度指数增加了0.014和0.015,斑块密度指数下降了0.003和0.002,优化了城市空间布局,遏制了城市蔓延式的发展趋势,更符合生态型城市建设的要求。应用MCE-CA模型实现了影响城市发展因素的量化和空间表达,将“反规划”理念和GIS空间技术应用到城市用地布局规划实践中,具有较高的模拟精度和准确的结果,且易于操作。
Taking Jiayuguan, an industrial city in northwestern oasis in China, as the research object, based on the remote sensing image data, the MCE-CA model of Geo SOS was integrated and the concepts of “positive planning” and “inverse planning” were integrated. Urban development boundary demarcation of cities in 2020 and 2030 with a view to provide basis for land use and urban management of Jiayuguan. The results show that: (1) In the 19-year study, Jiayuguan City expanded rapidly. In 2014, the urban land area was 2.1 times that of 1995, and the compactness of the city’s periphery showed a decreasing trend. From 0.25 to As low as 0.14 in 2014, the city has a notable feature of contagious growth. The patch density increased gradually from 0.02 in 1995 to 0.12 in 2014, the urban development tended to be loose, the urban land fragmentation increased and the connectivity of urban land decreased. (2) The elastic urban development boundary scale of Jiayuguan City in 2020 and 2030 is respectively 106.78 km2 and 149.35 km2, and the development boundary of rigid city is 246.92 km2. (3) The demarcated urban development boundary enhanced the compactness and connectivity of Jiayuguan City. The compactness index of urban land increased by 0.014 and 0.015, and the plaque density index decreased by 0.003 and 0.002, which optimized the layout of urban space and prevented the spread of urban Style development trend, more in line with the requirements of eco-city construction. The MCE-CA model is used to realize the quantification and spatial expression of the factors that affect the urban development. The “anti-planning” concept and GIS space technology are applied to the planning of urban land use layout with high simulation precision and accurate results. Easy to operate.