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借助于数学软件MATLAB,运用模糊数学方法,探讨中国交通事故发生及危害的变化规律.首先,作中国交通事故统计数据的散点图,观察发现交通事故的变化同时具有线性增长总趋势和波动性特征,呈现出复杂的非线性组合特点;再对这些数据进行归一化处理,给出交通事故的模糊隶属函数;最后对交通数据进行分布拟合、组合回归处理,得到交通事故非线性模糊分布函数.结果表明,随着时间的变化,中国交通事故的死亡人数呈线性与正态叠加波动上升趋势,受伤人数呈线性与正弦叠加波动上升趋势,发生起数与损失折款都呈双峰正态分布波动趋势,2002年以来交通状况正在好转.得到的结果能客观地反映交通事故的现状分布和精确地刻划中国交通事故发生及危害变化规律,对于交通事故预测、综合治理具有重要的理论意义和应用价值,可供交通事故研究和有关部门制定交通安全管理决策作参考.
With mathematical software MATLAB, the use of fuzzy mathematics to explore the occurrence of traffic accidents in China and changes in the law of harm.First of all, as a scatter plot of traffic accidents in China, the observed changes in traffic accidents at the same time with the linear growth trend and volatility Characteristics, showing a complex combination of nonlinear characteristics; these data are normalized to give the fuzzy membership function of traffic accidents; Finally, the distribution of traffic data fitting, the combination of regression processing, traffic accidents are non-linear fuzzy distribution Function.The results show that with the change of time, the death toll of traffic accidents in China increases linearly and normally, the number of injuries increases linearly with the fluctuation of sine superimposed, The trend of the distribution is fluctuating and the traffic condition is improving since 2002. The results obtained can objectively reflect the current situation of traffic accidents and accurately characterize the changes of traffic accidents and the harmful changes in China and have an important theory for traffic accident prediction and comprehensive management Meaning and application value, for traffic accident research and the relevant departments to develop traffic Full management decisions for reference.