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基于我国30个省市(不含西藏)2000-2011年的地区生产总值与电力消费量数据,本文通过单位根检验、协整检验及格兰杰因果关系检验,最终构建了固定效应模型与误差修正模型对我国电力消费与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,地区生产总值与电力消耗量有长期均衡关系,且符合反向修正机制,GDP的短期波动调整到长期均衡的周期大约为6年。应保障并增加电力供应能力以充分发挥电力消费对我国经济增长的促进作用。
Based on the regional GDP and electricity consumption data of 30 provinces (excluding Tibet) from 2000 to 2011, this paper tests the unit root test, co-integration test and Granger causality test to build a fixed effect model and error Correction model on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China conducted an empirical analysis. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and power consumption and in line with the reverse correction mechanism. The period of short-term fluctuations in GDP adjusted to long-term equilibrium is about 6 years. The power supply capacity should be ensured and increased to give full play to the role of electricity consumption in promoting economic growth in our country.