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边坡可靠性研究从静力学领域逐步拓展到更具一般性的动力学领域是研究不断深化的必然结果。当前国际上对边坡动力可靠性的研究正处于起步阶段,现有的边坡动力可靠性评价理论和方法均是从静力可靠性理论体系发展而来。通过剖析可靠性问题求解的理论构架,将边坡静力可靠性分析方法分为6种嵌套模式,指出其中4种可以拓展到动力学领域。明确了高性能计算在动力可靠性分析中的地位,依据计算复杂性理论对算法的效率做了定量的研究,给出了静力和动力条件下的时间复杂度。对近13年来(2000-2012年)SCI-E数据库收录的46篇文献进行了统计分析。在此基础上,将边坡动力可靠性研究存在的问题归纳为3个方面:①对不确定性考虑不足。②边坡体系可靠度求解方法所存在的争论对动力学领域的影响显著。③计算效率问题已成为制约动力可靠性研究的技术瓶颈之一。指出未来边坡动力可靠性研究的发展趋势是:①对不确定性的考虑将趋向全面和深入;在岩土体物理力学性质的描述上,运用随机场理论来刻画空间变异性的研究将逐步受到重视;且模糊性与随机性将获得深入的整合。②针对边坡体系可靠度求解方法的争论,今后的发展方向之一是致力于从理论上实现完备的证明,结束关于边坡体系可靠度求解方法的争论;方向之二是在具体实践上,朝着精细化、复杂化的方向发展,将会更为广泛地与新兴的群体智能优化算法相结合。③在解决动力可靠性分析的计算效率问题上,以Monte Carlo法内嵌响应面法的模式具有良好的发展前景,通过吸收非线性学科的相关优秀算法作为高效率的响应面代理手段,将会极大地推动边坡动力可靠性研究的发展。
The study of slope reliability gradually extends from the field of statics to the more general dynamic field, which is the inevitable result of deepening research. At present, the research on the reliability of slope power is in its infancy. The existing theories and methods of dynamic reliability assessment of slope are developed from the theoretical system of static reliability. By analyzing the theoretical framework of reliability problem solving, the static reliability analysis of slope is divided into six kinds of nesting modes, and four of them can be extended to the field of dynamics. The status of HPC in dynamic reliability analysis is clarified. Based on computational complexity theory, the efficiency of the algorithm is studied quantitatively, and the time complexity under static and dynamic conditions is given. The 46 articles included in the SCI-E database in the past 13 years (2000-2012) were statistically analyzed. On this basis, the problems existing in the study of slope power reliability are summarized into three aspects: (1) Insufficient consideration of uncertainty. (2) The controversy of solving slope reliability system has a significant impact on the dynamics. ③ The computational efficiency has become one of the technical bottlenecks that restrict the reliability of power. It is pointed out that the development trend of dynamic reliability study of slope in the future is as follows: (1) The consideration of uncertainty will tend to be comprehensive and in-depth; on the description of the physical and mechanical properties of rock and soil mass, the research of using random field theory to describe the spatial variability will gradually Get the attention; and fuzziness and randomness will get in-depth integration. (2) In view of the controversy over the method for solving the reliability of slope system, one of the future development directions is devoted to achieving a complete proof in theory and ending the debate on the method for solving the reliability of slope system. The second direction is on the concrete practice. Moving toward refinement and sophistication will be more broadly integrated with emerging group intelligence optimization algorithms. ③To solve the computational efficiency of dynamic reliability analysis, the Monte Carlo method with embedded response surface method has a good prospect. By absorbing relevant non-linear disciplines as an efficient response surface agent, Greatly promote the development of slope reliability study.