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目的了解2009-2014年无锡市女性乳腺癌死亡状况并预测死亡趋势,为本地区女性乳腺癌防制策略的制定提供参考依据。方法根据无锡市2009-2014年死因监测资料,计算女性乳腺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率,利用GM(1,1)模型拟合并预测无锡市女性乳腺癌死亡率。结果 6年间无锡市女性乳腺癌死亡率呈逐年上升趋势(χ2趋势=4.19,P=0.04),且呈现随年龄增长而上升的特点(χ2趋势=792.52,P<0.0001),平均死亡率为8.99/10万(中标率5.16/10万,世标率4.86/10万)。利用GM(1,1)模型拟合得a=-0.037548,μ=7.966789,预测模型为^Y(t)=220.538532e0.037548(t-1)-212.178532(C=0.30,P=1),模型预测精度等级为好。预计2015年无锡市女性乳腺癌死亡率为10.18/10万,到2020年将达12.28/10万。结论灰色模型GM(1,1)可用于无锡市女性乳腺癌死亡趋势预测,乳腺癌仍是今后无锡市相当一段时期内威胁女性健康状况的恶性肿瘤。
Objective To understand the death status of breast cancer in women in Wuxi in 2009-2014 and predict the death trend and provide a reference for the development of strategies for preventing breast cancer in the region. Methods According to the monitoring data of death from 2009 to 2014 in Wuxi City, the crude and normalized mortality rate of female breast cancer was calculated, and the mortality rate of female breast cancer in Wuxi was fitted and predicted by GM (1,1) model. Results The incidence of breast cancer in Wuxi women increased year by year (χ2 trend = 4.19, P = 0.04) and showed an increase with age (χ2 trend = 792.52, P <0.0001) with an average mortality rate of 8.99 / 100,000 (winning rate of 5.16 / 100,000, the world standard rate of 4.86 / 100,000). The model was fitted as follows: a = -0.037548 and μ = 7.966789, respectively. The prediction model was Y (t) = 220.538532e0.037548 (t-1) -212.178532 (C = 0.30, P = 1) Model prediction accuracy grade as well. It is estimated that the death rate of female breast cancer will reach 10.18 / 100,000 in Wuxi in 2015 and 12.28 / 100,000 in 2020. Conclusion Gray model GM (1,1) can be used to predict the death of female breast cancer in Wuxi. Breast cancer is still a malignant tumor threatening the health status of women in Wuxi for a considerable period in the future.