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在各种自然灾害中,干旱是发生范围最广、频率最高、灾情和影响最严重的灾害。近年来,随着自然灾害损失的加剧,减灾工作得到各国政府前所未有的重视,各国科技工作者开始了包括干旱在内的自然灾害的评估工作。本文旨在把握干旱灾害评估的研究现状,力求对干旱灾害评估各个方面的研究做出较全面的总结和评价,以期达到促进中国干旱灾害评估研究进一步深化的目的。文章从干旱指标、干旱评估理论、干旱评估方法以及干旱评估类型等方面对国内外的研究进展进行了较全面的分析,分析表明,现有干旱评估研究多侧重于农业干旱和区域单品种干旱灾情的特征研究,缺乏从系统的角度综合研究干旱对生态环境、社会经济效应等区域灾害系统的模拟研究,干旱评估模型结果不能反映干旱带来的系统影响。未来的干旱评估研究要更多地应用新技术和新方法,不断向多学科、综合研究方向发展。
Among various natural disasters, the drought is the most widespread, the highest frequency of disasters and the most affected disaster. In recent years, with the loss of natural disasters increasing, the disaster reduction work has received the unprecedented attention of all the governments of various countries. The scientific and technological workers of various countries have started the assessment of natural disasters including drought. The purpose of this paper is to grasp the status quo of research on drought disaster assessment and to make a comprehensive summary and evaluation of various aspects of drought disaster assessment in order to achieve the purpose of further deepening the research on drought disaster assessment in China. The article has made a comprehensive analysis of the research progress at home and abroad from the aspects of aridity index, drought assessment theory, drought assessment method and the type of drought assessment. The analysis shows that the existing drought assessment research mostly focuses on agricultural drought and regional single species drought The study of the characteristics of the disaster lacks systematic study of the simulation study of regional disaster systems such as ecological environment and socio-economic effects from a systematic perspective. The results of the drought assessment model can not reflect the systematic impact of drought. Future studies on drought assessment should make more use of new technologies and new methods and continue to develop towards multidisciplinary and comprehensive research.