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高可靠性部件短时间内很难得到足够的性能数据,致使对部件退化规律的认知存在一定不确定性,无法准确估计系统的可靠性。为实现对系统可靠性准确估计,假定部件性能参数的分布参数为区间变量,建立了基于区间变量的部件性能参数分布模型,给出了部件状态概率的计算方法。对状态性能区间边界进行补偿,定义了区间通用生成函数及其运算法则,提出了考虑认知不确定性的多态系统可靠性评估方法,并对某型雷达功率放大分系统的可靠性进行分析。本文方法克服了性能参数分布信息缺少、无法准确建立状态性能参数分布模型的不足,具有很强的通用性和工程应用价值。
It is difficult to get sufficient performance data of high-reliability components in a short period of time. As a result, there is some uncertainty in the recognition of the component degradation rules, and the reliability of the system can not be estimated accurately. In order to achieve an accurate estimation of system reliability, the distribution parameter of component performance parameters is assumed to be interval variable. The distribution model of component performance parameters based on interval variables is established, and the calculation method of component state probability is given. The state function interval boundary is compensated, the general function of interval generation and its operation method are defined, and the reliability assessment method of the multi-state system considering cognitive uncertainty is proposed. The reliability of a certain type of radar power amplification subsystem is analyzed . The proposed method overcomes the shortcomings of the lack of information about the distribution of performance parameters and the failure to accurately establish the distribution model of the state performance parameters, and has strong versatility and engineering application value.