论文部分内容阅读
针对塞斯纳172基本型飞机在运行过程中的高故障率问题,提出了一种基于灰色理论的故障预测方法,该方法首先是将172基本型飞机故障信息数据集中处理和分析,分析了172基本型飞机故障千时率,其次建立预测模型GM(1,1),通过GM模型数据计算完成飞机设备的失效预测,最后对误差精度进行拟合检验,模型预测结果表明,此方法有效的预测塞斯纳172基本型飞机故障,实现用较少的数据得到较高的预测精度,降低172基本型飞机设备的故障率,提高设备可靠性,保障飞行安全。
Aiming at the high failure rate of Cessna 172 during its operation, a fault prediction method based on gray theory is proposed. The method firstly focuses on processing and analyzing the data of failure of 172 basic aircraft, and analyzes 172 Basic aircraft failure thousand hour rate, and secondly, the forecasting model GM (1,1) is established, and the failure prediction of the aircraft equipment is completed through the calculation of the GM model data. Finally, the error precision is tested by the fitting test. The model prediction results show that this method can effectively predict Cessna 172 basic aircraft failure, with less data to achieve a higher prediction accuracy, reduce the failure rate of 172 basic aircraft equipment, improve equipment reliability and ensure flight safety.