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目的 对上海市区 1972~ 1999年肿瘤发病资料进行统计、分析 ,了解肿瘤发病率的变化趋势。方法 病例统一按照国际疾病分类 (ICD 9)进行编码。根据人口普查资料中的性别、年龄构成用内插法和外推法估算各年的年龄组平均人口数。用世界标准人口计算标化率。发病率每年变化百分比 ,用对数直线回归法估计 ,并用病例数加权。结果 1972~ 1999年间 ,男性所有部位肿瘤标化率从 2 5 0 .0 /10万降至 2 14 .8/10万 ,女性从 175 .3/10万降至 16 3.4 /10万。男女性结肠癌、胆道癌、肾癌 ,男性前列腺癌、多发性骨髓瘤以及女性脑和神经系统肿瘤的发病率上升幅度均达到 10 0 %及以上。男女性胰腺癌、直肠癌、非何杰金淋巴瘤、男性脑和神经系统肿瘤、女性乳腺癌、宫体癌、卵巢癌的发病率呈明显上升趋势。男女性食管癌和女性宫颈癌的发病率下降幅度达到一半以上 ,胃癌和肝癌的发病率也呈明显下降趋势 ,肺癌发病率在男、女性别中均变化不大。结论 上述发病率变化趋势提示除了肿瘤诊断和报告情况的改善外 ,包括居民生活方式在内的环境因素的变化起着重要作用 ,需要深入开展流行病学研究 ,明确危险因素 ,提出有效的预防方法。
Objective To analyze and analyze the data of cancer incidence in Shanghai from 1972 to 1999 and understand the trend of tumor incidence. Methods The cases were uniformly coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 9). According to the gender and age composition in the census data, the average population of each age group is estimated by interpolation and extrapolation. Calculate the standardization rate using the world’s standard population. The annual percentage change in incidence was estimated by log linear regression and weighted by the number of cases. Results Between 1972 and 1999, the tumor standardization rate was reduced from 250,000 to 100,000 in all men and 2,148,000 to 100,000 in women and from 175,31,000 to 1,634,000 in females. The incidence of colon cancer, biliary tract cancer, renal cancer, male prostate cancer, multiple myeloma and female brain and nervous system tumors in men and women increased by more than 100%. Male and female pancreatic cancer, rectal cancer, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, male brain and nervous system tumors, female breast cancer, uterine body cancer, ovarian cancer incidence showed a clear upward trend. Men and women esophageal cancer and female cervical cancer incidence dropped more than half, the incidence of gastric cancer and liver cancer also showed a significant downward trend in the incidence of lung cancer in men and women did not change much. Conclusion The trend of the above-mentioned morbidity rate suggests that in addition to the improvement of diagnosis and reporting of tumors, the change of environmental factors including resident lifestyles plays an important role. It is necessary to carry out epidemiological studies in depth, identify the risk factors and propose effective prevention methods .