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本文通过对美国利率的变动与房地产价格变动的实证分析,得出利率变动与房地产价格变动关系非常复杂的结论,实际上利率并不是决定房价变动的最重要的因素,最重要的因素应该是经济增长情况。当经济处在上升期,利率也进入上调周期时,房价保持上涨趋势;而当经济处在上升期,利率进入下调周期时,房价上涨加速。当危机到来,经济处于下行期,无论进入降息周期还是加息周期,房价都大幅下跌。
Based on the empirical analysis of the change of the interest rate in the United States and the change of the real estate price, this paper concludes that the relationship between the change of the interest rate and the change of the real estate price is very complicated. In fact, the interest rate is not the most important factor that determines the change of house prices. The most important factor should be the economy Growth. When the economy is in a rising period and the interest rate is also in the upward cycle, housing prices keep rising. When the economy is in a rising period and the interest rate goes into a downward cycle, housing prices are accelerating. When the crisis comes, the economy is in the down phase, regardless of entering the interest rate cut cycle or rate hike cycle, prices have dropped sharply.