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在成熟市场经济条件下的股市中,预期对于股价的走势具有一定影响,造就了股市领先于其他经济指标,具有反映经济运行的晴雨表功能。对于我国这样一个新兴加转轨的股市而言,预期对股价短期走势的影响尤为突出。在造成我国A股市场超涨超跌的因素中,有相当大的非理性预期成分,这与发达国家成熟市场的理性预期有着本质不同。因此,要减少股价的非理性波动,就要稳定人们的预期。预期因素对我国A股股价的影响与对发达国家股市价格的影响存在很大差异。1990-2012年的22年中,以纽交
In the stock market under the conditions of a mature market economy, the stock market is expected to have a certain impact on the trend of the stock prices, creating a stock market ahead of other economic indicators and having a barometer function reflecting the economic operation. For China’s emerging stock market, the expected short-term trend of stock prices is particularly prominent. Among the factors that cause the oversold oversold in the A-share market of our country, there is a rather large irrational expected component, which is essentially different from the rational expectation of mature markets in developed countries. Therefore, to reduce the irrational fluctuations in the stock price, it is necessary to stabilize people’s expectations. The influence of expected factors on China’s A-share prices and the impact on the stock prices in developed countries are quite different. In the 22 years from 1990 to 2012, we made a diplomatic mission in New York