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2005年8月26日,宝钢宣布第四季度大幅降价通知,英国《金融时报》评论说:“宝钢降价表明,中国国内钢铁业的繁荣正在衰退。”2005年8月8日,上海大众汽车宣布启动“飓风行动”计划,4大品牌汽车大幅度降价。2005年10月20日,有报道说:“上海房地产业企业家信心指数已经回到1999年的水平。”当我们正在为2005年中国经济高增长、低通胀的成绩而欢欣鼓舞时,通货紧缩正悄然来临。首先,货币的流动性变差,利率下降,中国经济有掉人流动性陷阱的危险。银行间加权平均的拆借利率从今年1月份的2.06%下降到8月份的1.45%。扣除超额准备金利率,则实际的拆借利率只有0.46%,金融市场的利率重心正在向下移动。银行贷款占存款的比例,从1995年下降到100%以下后,一路下滑,到2005年8月已经下降到70%以下,说明已经有大约8万亿元资金贷不出去。其次,GDP 的增长过度依靠国际贸易。2004年,中国 GDP 为13.65万亿元,进出口总额为
On August 26, 2005, Baosteel announced substantial price cuts in the fourth quarter. The Financial Times commented: “Baosteel’s price cut indicates that the domestic steel industry in China is in recession.” On August 8, 2005, Shanghai Volkswagen Car announced the launch of “Hurricane Action ” program, 4 major brand cars substantially lower prices. On October 20, 2005, it was reported that: “The Shanghai Real Estate Industry Entrepreneur Confidence Index has returned to the level of 1999.” While we are rejoicing at the high growth and low inflation in China in 2005, Deflation is quietly coming. First, the currency’s liquidity deteriorates, its interest rates fall, and the Chinese economy is in danger of losing its liquidity trap. The weighted average interbank interest rate dropped from 2.06% in January this year to 1.45% in August. After deducting the excess reserve rate, the actual interest rate is only 0.46% and the interest rate center of the financial market is moving downward. Since the ratio of bank loans to deposits dropped from below 95% in 1995 to less than 100%, it slipped all the way down to below 70% in August 2005, indicating that about 8 trillion yuan of funds have been lent out. Second, the growth of GDP relies too much on international trade. In 2004, China’s GDP was 13.65 trillion yuan, with a total import and export of