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随着我国利率市场化改革和汇率体制改革的深入,金融市场的利率水平和人民币汇率水平对商品价格的影响越来越显著。通过建立结构向量自回归SVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析,比较分析了利率、汇率变动对我国几个主要的商品价格指数的影响后发现,当前利率变动对价格的影响要强于汇率,人民币升值在短期对价格有抑制作用,但是在中期反而有促进作用。利率和汇率变动对价格的影响时间有限,在长期,价格还是会回到初始水平。
With the marketization of interest rates in our country and the reform of the exchange rate system, the impact of the interest rates of the financial markets and the exchange rate of RMB on the prices of commodities has become more and more significant. Through the establishment of structural vector autoregressive SVAR model, the use of impulse response function analysis, comparative analysis of the impact of interest rate and exchange rate changes on China’s several major commodity price indices found that the current interest rate changes on the price stronger than the exchange rate, the appreciation of the renminbi Short-term price has inhibited the role, but in the medium term but to promote the role. The impact of changes in interest rates and exchange rates on prices is limited, and in the long run prices will return to their original levels.