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本文以马铃薯为研究对象,以玉米和小麦为对照作物,根据2005—2013年相关粮食生产和农业投入品统计数据,核算并对比3种粮食作物的生产碳排放,并运用指数分解法将马铃薯生产碳排放的变化分解为产量效应、投入品效应、价格效应、结构效应和成本效应。研究表明:按照干物质当量折算产量后,马铃薯单位产量生产碳排放略低于玉米,明显优于小麦,是生产碳排放效率最高的粮食作物。就马铃薯生产碳排放变化的影响因素而言,2007年之前产量效应发挥主导作用,2007年之后碳排放由产量主导型转变为投入品主导型,成本效应成为主导效应,并导致生产碳排放增加。成本效应与农业投入成本正相关,投入品成本变化主要源于投入量增减,而受价格影响较小。发挥马铃薯增产潜力,提高肥药使用效率,通过非价格方式调节农资投入量有望将保障粮食供应和降低环境载荷有机结合。
In this paper, we took potato as the research object and maize and wheat as control crops. Based on the statistical data of 2005-2003 related grain production and agricultural inputs, we calculated and compared the production carbon emissions of the three kinds of food crops and used exponential decomposition method to make potato production The change of carbon emission is decomposed into output effect, input effect, price effect, structural effect and cost effect. The research shows that the yield of potato produced per unit of output is slightly lower than that of corn after converting the yield according to the dry matter equivalent, which is obviously better than that of wheat and is the most efficient food crop for producing carbon. In terms of the influencing factors of the change of carbon emissions from potato production, the output effect played a leading role before 2007, and the carbon emission shifted from production-oriented to input-led after 2007, with the cost effect becoming the dominant effect and leading to the increase of production carbon emissions. The cost effect is positively correlated with the input cost of agriculture, and the input cost change mainly comes from the increase or decrease of inputs, but less affected by the price. Potential potato yield to play to improve the efficiency of fertilizer use, non-price adjustment of agricultural inputs is expected to ensure food supply and reduce the environmental load organic combination.