通过对采煤工作面涌水量作自然对数变换,建立改进的灰色理论模型,然后再将其与马尔可夫模型相结合,得出改进的灰色马尔可夫模型。对千秋煤矿411172工作面涌水量进行了预测。结果表明,改进的灰色马尔可夫预测模型拟合精度较好,结果可靠。现场实践证明,改进的灰色马尔可夫预测模型为千秋煤矿制定排水方案和防治水措施提供了较准确的基础数据。 Through the natural logarithm transformation of coal seam water inflow, an improved gray theory model is established, and then combined with the Markov model, an improved gray Markov model is obtained. The water inflow of 411172 working face in Qianqiu Coal Mine was predicted. The results show that the improved gray Markov forecasting model has good fitting accuracy and reliable results. The field practice proves that the improved gray Markov forecasting model provides more accurate basic data for the draining scheme and water control measures of Qian Qiu Coal Mine.